Reform UK’s ultimate damage to the Conservatives at a general election has been laid bare in a poll which has analysed each seat.

It is predicted that the Tories would lose 41 seats, which is another significant blow when estimates suggest Rishi Sunak‘s party could suffer a major defeat. Six of these seats are held by Cabinet Ministers.

An MRP poll this week suggested Mr Sunak would only win 155 seats, with Sir Keir Starmer snatching 403. But the crunch isn’t just the discrepancy between Labour and Tory seats – it’s Reform UK which, according to The Times, plays a big part in pinching much needed seats to seize that victory.

Joint analysis by The Times and YouGov has this week claimed the Conservatives would win 196 seats, 41 more than under the existing poll. Labour’s seat count would drop to 374.

Reform UK has been steadily gaining support in polls this year, reaching a record 16 per cent of the vote share in the most recent YouGov tracker poll of voting intention

One in three Conservative 2019 voters are now intending to vote for Reform UK in the upcoming election, according to YouGov, while the same is true of just 2% of those who voted Labour.

Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, said: “Analysis from the 2019 election suggested that the Brexit Party cost Boris Johnson’s Conservatives 25 seats by standing in Labour seats during that election.

“Our analysis on the latest YouGov MRP [poll] suggests the effect of Reform UK in the upcoming election could be even larger. And this is without considering the looming spectre of Nigel Farage; should he choose to return to lead Reform UK, the 41 [seat] figure would no doubt increase. This will certainly add fuel to the fire around concerns about the impact that the challenge from the right is having on Tory electoral prospects.”

In 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

Reform, led by Richard Tice, has recently seen former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson defect to its ranks.

It came after the MP was stripped of the Tory whip for suggesting Labour mayor Sadiq Khan was being controlled by Islamist extremists.