VOL. 39  NO. 1

Our cover story this month focuses primarily on tariffs and their far-reaching consequences. It also explores the potential for a chain reaction across several global regions that could affect economic growth and inflation worldwide. Much remains uncertain regarding the size and timing of tariffs worldwide, but the early statements of the incoming US administration force some serious considerations.

An example of this uncertainty came from the US Federal Reserve. As expected, it cut interest rates a quarter point in December but changed its 2025 forecast, triggering a negative reaction in financial markets. The Fed now anticipates a half-percentage-point reduction in rates later this year—half of what was previously expected—signaling a lighter easing cycle and opening a debate on whether low interest rates will return soon. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell likened the slowdown in rate cuts to driving at night on a foggy, unfamiliar road, reflecting the broader uncertainties around the incoming US administration’s policies. The market’s response offers an early glimpse of the potential economic fallout from tariffs, particularly their impact on inflation. Meanwhile, the political fallout from a contentious congressional budget fight over funding the US government raises the stakes for the opening months of Donald Trump’s presidency.

This month, we gave Global Salon considerable attention in the magazine. Two professors, Baruch Lev of NYU Stern School of Business and Feng Gu of SUNY at Buffalo’s School of Management, discuss the results of their recent study and book on over 40,000 M&A deals worldwide, which have an astonishing 70% failure rate. Lev and Gu analyze the main reasons for this high failure rate, focusing on company size, sectors, and issues like manager incentives and due diligence. They offer practical advice on how to minimize the risks of failure.

This issue also includes our annual FX awards, which are dedicated to the memory of our late colleague Gordon Platt. These awards are presented in an environment of continued volume growth and increasing emphasis on technological innovation.

Andrea Fiano | Editor at Large
afiano@gfmag.com

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